Daily Rate Lock Advisory

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Unknown

Consumer Confidence Index

September's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will kick-off this week's data at 10:00 AM ET Tuesday morning. This Conference Board index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. A decline from August's reading would mean surveyed consumers felt better about their own financial situations last month than they do this month. This would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates because waning confidence is thought to translate into softer consumer spending numbers and that category makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. The lower the reading Tuesday, the better the news for rates.

Medium

Unknown

ADP Employment

The importance level rises Wednesday morning with the release of September's ADP Employment report at 8:15 AM ET. It has the potential to cause some movement in the markets if it shows much stronger or weaker numbers than forecasts. This report tracks changes in private-sector jobs, using ADP's payroll processing clients as a base. However, it is not accurate in predicting results of the much more influential monthly government report that follows a couple days later. Still, because we have seen noticeable reactions to the report at times, it is on our calendar. Forecasts show approximately 60,000 new payrolls were added to the economy. Good news for mortgage rates would be a noticeably smaller increase.

High

Unknown

Personal Income and Outlays

August’s Personal Income and Outlays data is set to be posted at 8:30 AM ET Wednesday. It will give us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending activity. The theory is, if consumer income is rising, they have more money to spend each month. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.4% rise in income while spending rose 0.7% during the month. This report also includes important inflation readings that the Fed relies on during their FOMC meetings (PCE). The overall PCE is expected to show a 0.4% increase while the more important core PCE that excludes more volatile food and energy costs is predicted to rise 0.3%. Since rising inflation erodes the value of a bond's future fixed interest payments and causes the Fed to raise key short-term interest rates, stronger than expected readings would likely lead to higher mortgage rates Wednesday.

Low

Unknown

GDP Rev 2 (month after Rev 1)

Also set for release early Wednesday morning is the second revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading. The GDP is the sum of all products and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best measurement of economic growth or contraction. However, this data is quite aged now (covers April through June) and will likely have little impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from previous readings. Market participants are looking more towards next month's release of the current quarter's initial GDP reading. Wednesday's update is expected to match the initial revision that the economy contracted at a 0.2% annual rate. A large upward revision in the GDP would be considered negative for rates as it means the economy was stronger than thought.

High

Unknown

ISM Index (Institute for Supply Management)

Next up is another of the week's major economic releases. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their September manufacturing index at 10:00 AM ET Thursday. We consider this to be highly important because it measures manufacturer sentiment and is usually the first report released that covers the preceding month. This month's update is expected to show a September reading of 54.8, indicating that manufacturer sentiment was a bit stronger than August's 54.6. A smaller than expected number would be good news for bonds and mortgage pricing.

High

Unknown

Employment Situation

Friday has the final two reports scheduled, one being on the list of most important economic releases each month. The extremely influential data is September's governmental Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. Some of the closely watched readings in the report are the unemployment rate, the number of new jobs added or lost during the month and the average hourly earnings change. The best combination for the bond market and mortgage rates would be an increase in the unemployment rate, a much smaller payroll number than expected and little or no increase in earnings. Current forecasts are calling for no change from August's unemployment rate of 4.1%, approximately 100,000 new jobs added to the economy and a 0.3% rise in earnings. Stronger than expected readings will likely fuel selling in bonds that would cause a sizable upward revision to mortgage rates Friday morning. If the numbers point to weakness in the sector, we should see lower mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

Factory Orders

August's Factory Orders report is Friday's second release. It is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders data in giving us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength, but this version includes new orders for both durable and non-durable goods. It is not one of the more important reports we get each month, especially since it is coming on the same day as the Employment report. Analysts are expecting the report to show no change in new orders, indicating the manufacturing activity was flat last month. The bond market would like to see a large decline, but it is unlikely that this data will draw much attention from the markets Friday.

Medium

Unknown

Fed Talk

In addition to this week's economic data, there is also another batch of Fed-member speaking engagements scheduled. There are a few that have topics related to economic growth and/or monetary policy that may draw plenty of attention from the markets. The most important ones appear to be happening Tuesday and Thursday.

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Unknown

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Overall, any day could end up being the most active for mortgage rates with so much data and other influences in the markets this week. Friday is a good candidate due to the significance the Employment report carries in the markets, but Wednesday’s inflation data is likely to draw a strong reaction also if there are any surprises. Furthermore, we saw two unpredictable sell-offs and one big rally last week, all during afternoon trading. There is enough happening this week (scheduled and potentially unknown) that could cause a big move in rates any day. On the same note, no day stands out as a good choice for calmest day. Therefore, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Rate Lock Advisory

Mortgage Rate Trend

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Consumer Confidence Index

ADP Employment

Personal Income and Outlays

GDP Rev 2 (month after Rev 1)

ISM Index (Institute for Supply Management)

Employment Situation

Factory Orders

Fed Talk

none

Float / Lock Recommendation