Our Team Marvin Bush, Sales Associate/Team Leader DRE 01729105 Michelle Garcia, Sales Associate DRE 02101807

Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, October 26th

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite little news to drive trading this morning. Stocks are showing early gains of 257 points in the Dow and 62 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 6/32 (4.97%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates slightly if compared to Friday’s early pricing.

6/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.97%

257

Dow

52,472

62

NASDAQ

26,018

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High

Unknown

None

Today is the only day of the week with no relevant economic data or other events scheduled that we need to be concerned with. The remainder of the week is quite packed with economic and other events that have the potential to move mortgage rates. We have six monthly and quarterly economic reports set for release, including two that are labeled highly important. In addition to the data there are also a couple of Treasury auctions and the second to final FOMC meeting of the year.

High

Unknown

Durable Goods Orders

Tomorrow brings us the release of three of those reports, starting with September’s Durable Goods Orders report at 8:30 AM ET. This report gives us an important indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items. These are products that are expected to last three or more years, such as airplanes, appliances and electronics. Analysts are predicting a 1.0% increase in new orders. This data is known to be quite volatile from month to month and is difficult to forecast. Therefore, a small variance in orders either way will likely have little effect on bond trading or mortgage pricing. Favorable news would be a large decline in new orders that points to manufacturing weakness.

Medium

Unknown

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

October's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) from the New York-based Conference Board is next, coming at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index helps us gauge consumer willingness to spend by tracking consumer confidence in their own financial and employment situations. It is expected to show a decline from last month's 81.9 reading, meaning surveyed consumers felt better about their own financial and employment situations last month than this month. That would be good news for the bond market because waning confidence usually translates to weaker consumer spending levels and that category makes up over two-thirds of our economy. Current forecasts show a reading of 81.0. The lower the reading, the better the news for mortgage rates.

Low

Unknown

New Home Sales

September's New Home Sales report is going to be the third release of the day, but it is the least influential in this week’s batch of data. It will give us insight into the new home portion of the housing sector compared to home resales that were posted earlier this month. Forecasts show a decline in sales of newly constructed homes after the National Association of Realtors announced an increase in home resales earlier this month. Theoretically, a large decline in sales would be good news for rates since weaker housing makes broader economic growth more difficult. However, this report covers such a small portion of all some sales that we are not expecting it to have a noticeable impact on tomorrow’s rates.

Low

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Tomorrow also has the first of this week’s two semi-relevant Treasury auctions. 5-year Notes will be sold that day followed by 7-year Notes on Thursday. If these sales are met with a strong demand from investors, bond prices may rise enough during afternoon trading to slightly improve mortgage pricing. A lackluster interest from investors may create a bit of pressure in the broader bond market that leads to a minor upward revision to mortgage rates. It is worth noting that this week’s auctions are for shorter-term securities and mortgage rates are based on long-term debt. Therefore, any impact this week’s sales may have on rates should be minimal.

High

Unknown

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement

Overall, the FOMC meeting adjournment makes Wednesday the most important day of the week for rates by default, but Thursday’s data can cause a bigger change in rates if the Fed gives us no surprises Wednesday afternoon. Unless something unexpected happens, we should see the most noticeable changes in rates one of those days. Friday is a good candidate for calmest day. We also have to be on alert for stock influence again this week as concerns grow about technology stocks. Generally speaking, heavy stock selling tends to drive funds into funds as we saw last week. With so many factors to drive trading this week, it is highly recommended to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future because we are expecting a very active week for rates.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

The Bush Team @ Miramar International DRE 01357148

3400 Calloway Drive #700
BAKERSFIELD, CA 93312
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